Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 13.184754 16.046472 19.226891 23.002069 27.338592 32.141558 37.840076
2026-01-25 8.810365 12.396120 16.825028 22.603858 29.844214 38.512189 49.560923
2026-02-01 6.612398 10.460717 15.624739 22.857831 32.503536 44.689568 60.986104
2026-02-08 4.965983 8.763180 14.257167 22.444742 33.954926 49.154231 70.278308
2026-02-15 3.742384 7.347432 12.951298 21.792975 34.822778 52.705434 78.390102
2026-02-22 3.113014 6.702147 12.629735 22.429715 37.426101 58.638669 89.887529
2026-03-01 2.450135 5.829471 11.780670 22.105124 38.514979 62.430648 98.542419
2026-03-08 1.989934 5.209159 11.228769 22.139017 40.074854 66.905984 108.292393
2026-03-15 1.505467 4.403005 10.201750 21.230502 40.032486 68.948960 114.558106
2026-03-22 1.291317 4.120883 10.086784 21.850252 42.447438 74.765964 126.561391
2026-03-29 1.083655 3.793190 9.823574 22.157345 44.336122 79.830381 137.609214
2026-04-05 0.920670 3.527906 9.638946 22.573334 46.410201 85.250471 149.372428
2026-04-12 0.782239 3.303035 9.541004 23.216417 49.051807 91.911944 163.664304
2026-04-19 0.601679 2.885732 8.943189 22.817002 49.834885 95.641074 173.617454
2026-04-26 0.490911 2.639165 8.690121 23.072982 51.799384 101.380571 186.941013
2026-05-03 0.373657 2.307490 8.154416 22.656834 52.459995 104.934843 196.862705
2026-05-10 0.274338 1.980279 7.550152 22.000203 52.586033 107.547575 205.312500
2026-05-17 0.232247 1.874065 7.526534 22.641696 55.268568 114.687307 221.436831
2026-05-24 0.174775 1.650311 7.111008 22.314686 55.988370 118.389810 231.947245
2026-05-31 0.136508 1.494825 6.862046 22.348832 57.427642 123.415744 244.828267
2026-06-07 0.092486 1.252322 6.264919 21.433508 56.816482 124.683940 251.333605
2026-06-14 0.077431 1.192783 6.270736 22.057909 59.494179 132.077703 268.586729
2026-06-21 0.061628 1.107418 6.162782 22.367297 61.505965 138.302933 283.983425